A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
